MMG Weekly

 

 

                                       

 

 

 

In This Issue  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last Week in Review: 10 Reasons for housing to celebrate

Forecast for the Week: US/China impact

View: Learn about maximizing your time

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Last Week in Review  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spring is the peak home buying season for many parts of the country. After years of softer home sale activity – thanks to low housing inventory, affordability issues, and more – this Spring home buying season could prove to be one of the best in years. Why?

Call it the "Goldilocks" economic scenario – and here are several bullets that should help housing not just this Spring, but for the foreseeable future:

  1. The Fed has stated they will not raise rates in 2019. Yay!!! There is actually a better chance of a rate cut before 2019 comes to an end. This means home loan rates won't go too high.
  2. Inflation remains subdued – for now. Low inflation means lower rates.
  3. Home price gains are slowing year-over-year to healthier levels, and at equilibrium with personal wage gains. In years past, housing prices were gaining 10% to 15% or more, and wages were growing at 2%. Now we are seeing house prices increase 4% to 5% year-over-year, just slightly more than wages.
  4. Housing inventory is increasing. This is a big change from years past and should it continue, buyers will continue to come to the market and take advantage of the "Goldilocks" conditions.
  5. The Labor market remains solid. People buy homes because they feel good about their job and their future. Unemployment is at a 50-year low. This is very positive for housing.
  6. Europe can't get out of their own way. Their economies are weak and that is keeping their bonds yields ultra-low. This is putting downward pressure on US Bond yields. Yes – you can thank Europeans for your low home loan rates.
  7. The Stock market is right at all-time highs. This means higher 401K and IRA values create a positive wealth effect that should provide a nice tailwind for housing. People with money spend it.
  8. Consumer Confidence and Sentiment are increasing again thanks to the Fed no longer hiking rates, the strong job market, and Stocks up nicely in 2019. "Confident" consumers purchase homes.
  9. No fear of a US recession as Friday's March Jobs Report showed 196,000 new jobs created, a great rebound higher from February's 33,000 – which had stoked some recession chatter.
  10. Home loan rates continue to hover near 14-month lows, thanks to the many bullets above.


If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Forecast for the Week  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After last week's risk-filled events, the upcoming week is rather light on economic data with the highlight being the inflation reading Consumer Price Index. We don't see inflation rising anytime soon, and that has been backed up by the Fed's assertion that inflation will remain subdued for several years ahead.

Remember that inflation is the driver of long-term interest rates like mortgages – so if inflation remains low, so will mortgage rates.

The Bond markets will have to absorb a total of $78B in Treasury auctions of 3- and 10-year Notes along with 30-year Bonds from Tuesday through Thursday. The added supply into the market could cause price/rate volatility.

The ongoing talks and headlines between the US and China will continue to impact both Stocks and Bonds in the upcoming week. It seems like some sort of deal is near, with headlines showing that 90% of the talks are over. Should a deal come to pass, it will have a long-lasting positive effect on the US and Chinese economy – remember, Bonds generally don't like good news.

Reports to watch:

  • With a slow week ahead for data, reports begin on Wednesday with the inflation reading Consumer Price Index, followed by the Producer Price Index on Thursday.
  • As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday, with Consumer Sentiment on Friday.


 

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, April 5, 2019)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



The Mortgage Market Guide View...  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tip: Make Time Work for You

It's been said that time is money, and time is certainly a precious commodity. Here are some great tips for using the recurring event function in your calendar to make time work for you.

Daily Social Media Activity. The best time to post on Facebook and Twitter is right around lunchtime on weekdays. That doesn't mean you have to write the posts at the same time every day. Create a calendar reminder in the morning when your head is clear to write your posts, then use the scheduling feature for proper timing.

Daily/Weekly Staff Meetings. If you aren't meeting with your staff on a regular basis, you're missing vital gaps in your service or losing out on critical opportunities to grow your business. Brief, scheduled communications are the answer!

Weekly/Monthly Networking. If you haven't been to a networking event in a while then schedule a few. In fact, make these functions a recurring event in your calendar. That way, people get used to seeing your face on a regular basis. Just showing up is often the only icebreaker you need.

Thank You Notes. Schedule a recurring time every week in your calendar to write thank you notes to clients or partners you've worked with recently. Even taking fifteen minutes to write two or three letters a week can make a big difference over time.

Annual Events. Hosting an appreciation party or annual reviews for your clients, partners or colleagues is a great way to deepen your connection with them.

Start using these simple tips today and be sure to pass them along to your partners and colleagues.

Economic Calendar for the Week of April 08 - April 12

Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate

Actual

Prior

Impact

Wed. April 10

08:30

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Mar

NA

 

0.2%

HIGH

Wed. April 10

08:30

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Mar

NA

 

0.1%

HIGH

Thu. April 11

08:30

Jobless Claims (Initial)

4/06

NA

 

NA

Moderate

Thu. April 11

08:30

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Mar

NA

 

0.1%

Moderate

Thu. April 11

08:30

Core Producer Price Index (PPI)

Mar

NA

 

0.1%

Moderate

Fri. April 12

10:00

Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)

Apr

NA

 

98.4

Moderate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

 

 

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

 

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

 

Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.