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Valley Central Bank

Bob Paola
Vice President- Residential Lending
NMLS #754101
Valley Central Bank
8160 Corporate Park Drive, Suite 135
Cincinnati, OH 45242
Office: 513-868-5357
Cell: 513-702-2029
E-Mail:
bpaola@valleycentral.org

Bob Paola

For the week of Dec 03, 2018 | Vol. 16, Issue 49

 

 

In This Issue  

 

 

 

 

Last Week in Review: Soothing Words Helps Rates Improve

Forecast for the Week: Prepping for a Manic Monday

View: A look into a Team Concept for your Business

 

 

 

 

 


Last Week in Review  

 

 

 

 




















"This is what is sounds like when doves cry"... Prince

We heard "doves cry" this week, when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke in NYC on Wednesday. Doves are people who offer peaceful polices, so upon Mr. Powell's soothing speech both Stocks and Bonds moved nicely higher, with home loan rates hitting their best levels in nearly two months.

Some of Mr. Powell's market-comforting words included:

  • We know that moving too fast (hiking rates) will risk expansion
  • It may take a year or more to fully realize the effects of hikes
  • The Fed doesn't see "dangerous excesses" in the stock market
  • The policy rate (Fed Funds Rate) is "just below" neutral

The Fed is still very likely to raise the Fed Funds Rate in December, but the markets took the speech as signs the Fed will not hike rates three times in 2019, which was the Fed's own forecast.

Fed Fund Futures, which represent market opinion on the future of the Fed Funds Rate now suggest there will be only one rate hike in 2019.

The incoming data and more specifically, inflation, will determine whether we see more hikes in 2019.

Bottom line - the present low inflationary environment and slower global growth is helping keep home loan rates historically low.



If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help.

 

 

 

 

 


Forecast for the Week  

 

 

 

 

 

Things won't slow down as the final month of 2018 begins with what could be another wild week of market moving reports including the all-important November Jobs Report on Friday.


But before all that takes place, on Monday morning the markets will react to what happens over the weekend at the G-20 Meeting, a group of 20 nations that meet regularly to discuss international financial policy and promote stability.

President Trump and President Xi Jinping from China will meet Saturday night. The markets are on edge over the ongoing trade dispute - if a deal is made, stocks may celebrate at the expense of bonds. The opposite is true.

Key economic reports to watch this week:

  • The national ISM Manufacturing Index will be released on Monday followed by the ISM Service Index on Wednesday.
  • The first of two key labor market reports will be released on Wednesday with the ADP Private Payrolls Report.
  • On Friday, the granddaddy of all economic reports will be released, the November Jobs Report that includes Non-Farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate and Hourly Earnings.

 

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 30, 2018)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

 

 

 

 

 



The Mortgage Market Guide View...  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tip: The Team Concept - Can It Work for Your Business?

Home buyers don't need just one professional to help them get their dream homes; they need a whole team.

You can greatly improve your customer service by utilizing valuable team concepts to encourage your team to work together as a cohesive unit. When your team doesn't work well together, you can run into serious problems, including:

  • A slower home-buying process.

 

  • Redundancies as several people work on similar tasks.

 

  • Conflicting advice, which can confuse the buyer.

 

  • Mistakes or misunderstandings with the buyer.

Finding the right home involves more than just locating a house and closing a mortgage; it involves several practical steps, as well. For example, a buyer needs to assess their current and future needs, understand their financial situation, and coordinate a complex logistical move. These often require a combination of financial savvy, project management and even counseling skills that may not always come from one person.

Filling these roles with people you can comfortably work with will help you provide your clients with the benefits of a streamlined team. When you have strong relationships with a team of professionals, you will be well-positioned to help your client make the home-buying process go as smoothly as possible.

Sources: Oreilly.com and bluewatermtg.com

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 03 - December 07

Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate

Actual

Prior

Impact

Mon. December 03

10:00

ISM Index

Nov

NA

 

57.7

HIGH

Wed. December 05

08:15

ADP National Employment Report

Nov

NA

 

227K

HIGH

Wed. December 05

08:30

Productivity

Q3

NA

 

2.2%

Moderate

Wed. December 05

10:00

ISM Services Index

Nov

NA

 

60.3

Moderate

Wed. December 05

02:00

Beige Book

Nov

NA

 

NA

Moderate

Thu. December 06

08:30

Jobless Claims (Initial)

12/01

NA

 

234K

Moderate

Fri. December 07

08:30

Non-farm Payrolls

Nov

NA

 

250K

HIGH

Fri. December 07

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Nov

NA

 

3.7%

HIGH

Fri. December 07

08:30

Average Work Week

Nov

NA

 

34.5

HIGH

Fri. December 07

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Nov

NA

 

0.2%

HIGH

 

 

 

 

 

 

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

 

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

 

Bob Paola
8160 Corporate Park Drive, Suite 135
Cincinnati, Ohio 45242

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